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home : opinion : columns April 28, 2016


8/12/2012 6:01:00 AM
Kingman Column: How much more 'good' news can we survive?

Rich Thurlow
Editor


Investor's Business Daily is contributing so much information in this column I may as well urge you to subscribe.

Go ahead, subscribe. Or at least visit IBD's Website.

Here's IBD's take on some news from last week: Once again, a bad jobs report comes out, and both the White House and the media trumpet it as "good" news and a sign the economy's turning around. It is in fact a dismal jobs report, as the numbers clearly show.

IBD notes the 163,000 net new jobs in July, about twice as much as June's pathetic total, and the jobless rate moving up a notch to 8.3 percent.

This was followed by Obama bragging about creating 4.5 million jobs over the last 29 months and 1.1 million new jobs so far this year - all this despite the bad state of the economy still caused by George W. Bush.

You remember Bush, don't you: He was president as recently as January 2009.

Then those guys at IBD throw a wet towel on he celebration over our incredibly vibrant economy. IBD points out that 1.1 million payroll jobs have disappeared since Obama took office, and that the 151,000 new jobs a month average for this year is "way below the 300,000-plus per month job creation in a typical recovery-expansion."

OK, you're thinking, so it's not that great. But it is progress, right?

Uh, maybe not.

For example, the 163,000 jobs Obama claimed as his own come from a government estimate, plus seasonal adjustment factors.

And don't forget that 150,000 people left the workforce in July. That's "something that almost never happens when the economy is expanding and creating new jobs. In short, the 163,000 'new' jobs is a mirage due mostly to seasonal adjustments - not real jobs," IBD reports.

IBD also notes that since Obama stepped into office, 7.5 million people have left the workforce - calling all the administration's claims of job "gains" into question.

Some of those people retired. IBD says "the vast majority has become so disgruntled with their job prospects that they've quit looking."

Finally, IBD moves on to the government's U6 measure - one that takes into account discouraged workers and those who, as the Labor Department puts it, are "marginally attached" to the labor force.

The U6 shows a 15 percent unemployment rate, which means 23 million people who should be in the workforce have no job. IBD also reports the U6 measure of unemployment is rising.

There's a lot more, none of it good, all of it based on sound numbers. This might get you there: http://tinyurl.com/c6rbs5o.

So what's the point, you ask?

It's this: The economy under an Obama presidency will not get better, particularly one with Democrats in control of either the House or the Senate. This is the new normal - and you don't have to be a regular reader of Investor's Business Daily to figure it out.


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Reader Comments

Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: Mark T

And remove the period

Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: Mark T

Correction: That url should be
http://tinyurl.com/c6rbs50

Change last digit from an "o" to a zero.


Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: Concerned Citizen II

Thurlow, your column might mean something if you knew anything about economics, but you don't. I'm sure you think you do but you really don't, just like the rest of the right. You don't know, for instance, the rest of the world has joined the free-market capitalist game.

Like the butterfly flapping its wings here causes an elephant to stumble in Africa. This tiny parable is meant to show that world economics are so entwined, that any event creates waves around the world, like a tsunami.

Obama came on board with the nation deep in debt from two unfunded wars, an unfunded Medicare prescription plan and unfunded tax cuts with the majority going to the 1%.

The housing boom over-inflated prices and gave unfit people heavy mortgages. Banks packaged those bad mortgages and resold them to other banks, investment houses and pension funds. Europe came on board even deeper. Then in 2007 the house of cards came tumbling down.

Banks went bankrupt, investments disappeared and the bottom fell out of business, causing an average of 800,000 jobs a month to disappear. The irony is that what Obama did, the stimulus, bailing out banks, lowering interest rates, worked. Except Europe was in much deeper than we were, and were our largest trading partners. We lost all that trade, putting more people out of work. Europe is still on the verge of bankruptcy.

But for 40 months we’ve had slow steady job growth. The DOW rose to record levels. Businesses and banks are flush with cash. Consumers reduced debt by 50% and increased their savings. But no one is spending because so much depends on Europe. If they aren’t straightened out, they could easily pull us back into another recession. Obama has kept us on an even keel and above water.

wc/300


Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: David Rogers

Rich, when a person with your access to so many readers uses only one resource for your biased diatribe shows the lack of editorial integrity. Your commitment to all the citizens of Mohave County is truly in question. This is a disservice to many older citizens that cannot repute your statements. Ones again Rich our older citizens will take this one sided article as factual without resources or knowledge to rebuke your writings. Rich stop being part of the problem, stop writing half-truths and become part of the solution.


Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: anonymous anonymous

Almost had a stroke you admit Bush Jr started the fiscal fiasco, so I assume your admitting the tax cuts to the 2% alleged job creators by Bush Jr has failed? I mean Obama gave them a extension of the Bush Jr tax cuts, one can blame Obama for many things but he did not drive this bus into the ditch we are in! He might not be working miracles, but to suggest give it all back over to the folks who drove us into the ditch and pray they have learned their lesson is a bit wishful thinking in my book! 1 job over hundreds of thousands lost monthly is better than none, since how does a minus job growth under Bush Jr translate to anything but disaster! FDR one of the most beloved presidents in our recent history took almost a decade to fix Herbert Hoovers fiasco, I think time and historians will write this eras causes and effect!

Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: Same Old Thing

You sure are good at only citing your misguided perception of Obama's negatives. It's just seems too hard for you to look at the big picture.

Try writing a column on an Obama positive. Bet you can't, Mr. Hack-Editor.


Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: Rick O'Shea

I read that study also, I was however, not surprised that it was not popular with the more liberal news. I now understand how such high job numbers have been claimed, it's not how many jobs have been created or filled but how much we have lost overall. Now I understand why Obama is basically being called a liar by most of the news networks when it comes to his adds, but then again he has had practice from the start, I guess that's why his supporters are being quiet.

Posted: Sunday, August 12, 2012
Article comment by: Spread the Blame Around

It wasn't just the Dem's who deregulated the banks or sent jobs overseas. So let's not blame Obama he came into a mess caused by the Bush administration. Now gas prices are soaring up agin, not by pennies a day like they dropped but by twenty and thirty cents a day. The oil companies think we are stupid and believe that it is due to a fire at one refinery and unrest in the Middle East. Bull!!! It's due to greed!!! We have the holidays coming up and they need to line their pockets.



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