Meteorologists predict normal amounts of rain, higher temperatures in next three months

A monsoon season that has been a bust may give way to much-needed rainfall during the coming months.

Randy Cerveny, a professor of geography at Arizona State University, and Heather Orow, a staff meteorologist with the Nation Weather Service in Las Vegas, said Tuesday that near normal amounts of precipitation and above normal temperatures are expected for northwest Arizona during the next 90 days.

Those predictions come from the Climate Control Center in Silver Spring, Md.

On average, Kingman receives 0.73 inch of rain for September, 0.76 inch during October and 0.74 inch in November.

Those averages come from the Office of Climatology at ASU.

"We've been getting much more fall-like weather this summer with troughs coming through instead of high pressure systems setting up over the Four Corners area that brings in monsoon moisture," Orow said.

"But we're still in the monsoon season."

Mountainous regions of eastern Arizona and the southeast corner of the state have gotten much of the monsoon rainfall this season.

That is because the high-pressure ridges moved more south and east this summer and south Texas got much of the monsoon precipitation, Cerveny said.

While Orow was reluctant to say the monsoon is over for northwest Arizona, Cerveny was more definitive in his appraisal of the weather.

"The monsoon normally ends during the second week of September, but I don't see any influx of moisture before then," Cerveny said.

"You need the dew point to be 55 to have a good chance of rain and (Tuesday) it's just 19 here in Phoenix, so we are dry."

There has been no measurable rainfall during August at Kingman Airport.

During a normal year, Kingman would receive 1.44 inches during August, according to weather records.

July was little better.

Kingman received 0.45 inch of precipitation during five days of measurable rainfall, compared with 1.08 inches during a normal July.

A calm and near stagnant high-pressure ridge over the western United States contributed to so many wildfires this summer, Cerveny said.

"The strength of that ridge and a lack of moisture under it made for dry air that heated up faster and higher than wet air," Cerveny said.

Orow agreed.

"Without cloud cover and extra moisture the air is drier and you get higher temperatures," Orow said.

"When we've gotten high-pressure systems, they've been right over, us which suppresses moisture and raises temperatures."

The average maximum temperature in Kingman during July is 95.9 degrees and the average minimum temperature is 69.3.

Those figures this year were 99.7 and 72.5, respectively.

Average maximum and minimum temperatures in August for Kingman are 93.9 and 67.4.

The numbers drop in September to 88.1 and 60.8.

"What we're more concerned with is the winter because moisture then is what fills up the reservoirs," Cerveny said.

"Winter precipitation is usually more abundant than anything in the fall."